Category Archives: Atlantic City

Deep Routes: Washington’s One Man Army

By Anthony Reinhard

“Deep Routes” is a weekly series that will look in-depth at AFL stats and present weekly updates to my AFL model.

Model Refresh

That’s a wrap for the 2019 Regular Season! Albany went wire-to-wire as the league’s top team and will be the top seed in the playoffs. Albany will open the playoffs with 9.6 rating, meaning I would expect them to be a 9.6 pt favorite against the average AFL team on a neutral field. This is Albany’s highest mark of the year. The last other team to post a higher rating was the Philadelphia Soul after their 3-0 start last season. Albany still has a long climb to reach the all-time best mark of 17.8, set by the Arizona Rattlers in 2014 on their way to a third consecutive ArenaBowl title.

On the flip side, Columbus was the league’s worst team all season. Their -11.6 is above the original Destroyers low water mark of -13.3 in 2005, but is still the worst finish since Tampa Bay’s -14.2 when they finished 2-14 in the 2016 season. The 2007 Las Vegas Gladiators own the worst rating in AFL history. They came in at -15.8 after finishing 2-14. The team moved to Cleveland the following season.

The way my model is set up now, AC and Columbus will both be rated better than the expansion teams that will be announced at the ArenaBowl, although Columbus may only be a point and a half better. I may create a more robust way to adjust pre-season ratings during the off-season, so that could change.

Playoff Matchups

The playoffs will begin this Saturday in Albany. The Empire will have a 72.4% chance to win the first leg on their home turf against the Brigade. My model is giving Albany a 68.9% chance to win the aggregate score and advance to the Arena Bowl. I have Albany as a 9.6 pt favorite this week and a 5 pt favorite next week.

In the 2/3 matchup Washington will host Philly in what should be a competitive matchup. As of now, my ratings favor both home teams, but I give Philly a bigger edge during the second meeting. My simulation is giving the Soul a 50.4% chance to advance. Washington will be a 1 pt favorite this week and I presently have the Soul as a 3.6 pt favorite next week.

Arvell Nelson’s Back…

It must be sore! Nelson accounted for 73 of his team’s 74 touchdowns in the regular season after throwing for six and running for two more against Columbus last Saturday. Nelsons Rushing/Passing TD share is the highest of any player since the 2000 season. The only Valor offensive TD that he did not account for was a 10-yard touchdown run by Reggie Gray in Week 3.

Tommy Grady has cracked the top 15 three times in his career (2012, 2014, and 2018), but got plenty of help from Mykel Benson’s nine rushing scores this time around. Nelson’s workload alone should make him a strong contender for MVP, but Albany’s offensive performance give Grady a good chance as well.

Albany’s Offense Dominates Again

For the third time in 2019, Albany’s offense was not stopped by the opposing defense. Albany scored on every drive against the Soul in Week 13, except their final possession of the first half where the half came to an end on Philly’s one yard line. Since possessions that are ended by a half do not result in a turnover or score, they are not counted in my Offensive Points Per Drive (Off PPD) metric. That gave Albany an unprecedented third game with an Off PPD of 7+ this season, which has now happened just 16 times since 2000.

Albany’s offense finishes the season with an Off PPD of 5.35, the 11th best since 2000. The Destroyers end the season as the 10th worst offense on record and Atlantic City’s defense checks in at 12th worst. Atlantic City’s 16.7 possessions a game was the slowest pace ever, but as I’ve mentioned before, the league has instituted several rule changes designed to reduce game length which will in turn prevent teams from having more possessions.

The Race to Host ArenaBowl XXXII

Three cites remain as eligible to host the ArenaBowl. Philly will be unable to host, but should they advance and meet Baltimore the game would be in Atlantic City.

Odds of hosting ArenaBowl XXXII:
Albany – 68.9%
AC – 15.7%
DC – 15.4%

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BattleStations Episode 22: We’ll Fix It In Post

We have a season ending chat with Columbus Destroyers Head Coach Matt Sauk and discuss the AFL Post-season with Bee Jay and David from AFLFanzone.com

BattleStations: a Columbus Destroyers podcast in conjunction with AFL Fan Zone. 
Follow Frank Walker on Twitter at @BStationPod and at https://battlestations.pinecast.co

Deep Routes: Albany’s Bomb Squad

By Anthony Reinhard

“Deep Routes” is a weekly series that will look in-depth at AFL stats and present weekly updates to my AFL model.

Model Refresh

We’re now in the final week of the regular season and much of the playoff picture has been revealed. All four spots have been clinched and the final week will only settle seeding.

Playoff Matchups

Albany locked up the top seed last week with a win and will host their playoff game on July 27th. The following weekend they will play at the fourth seed (Baltimore or Washington).

The second seed will go to either the Soul or Valor depending on this weekend’s results. A loss by the Soul and a win by Washington would give the Valor the two seed and an option as to which weekend they would travel to Philadelphia. A win for Philly OR a loss by Washington would keep Philly as the two seed.

Though the Valor could grab the second seed, they could also fall to the fourth seed. A Washington loss and a Baltimore win would drop Washington to fourth place, which would land them in Albany in Week 14. If Washington wins OR Baltimore loses this week in AC, Baltimore will be the one to take on the Empire.

Albany’s Deep Threats

My post last week touched on how often Albany has been able to complete deep passes to Malachi Jones. That trend continued in Columbus on Sunday when Jones hauled in three more deep touchdowns early in the game as the Empire routed Columbus 49-18. With 11:23 left on the clock in the second quarter, Albany had run nine plays and Tommy Grady had connected on four of seven passes for 152 yards and four touchdowns. Grady’s four early touchdowns of 33, 40, 32, and 37 were joined by a 45 yard strike to Sims in late in the third quarter.

In digging through box scores on ArenaFan (available starting in 2000), I found only nine other games where a team connected on five or more passing TDs of 30+ yards. At just 18 minutes and 37 seconds into the game, Albany was the fastest to put four 30+ yard touchdowns on the board. The Orlando Predators actually completed the feat twice on back-to-back weeks during the 2014 season.

Throughout the year, the duo of Malachi Jones and Quentin Sims have had no trouble burning opposing defenses for deep touchdowns. With one week remaining, Jones & Sims have caught 28 touchdowns of 20 yards or more, already the best on record when accounting for length of season.

The Race to Host ArenaBowl XXXII

Albany maintains the best odds of hosting the Arena Bowl. There is a 40% chance that Albany will host Philly in what would be a rematch of their matchup this week. Baltimore still has a chance to host in the event that they nab the third seed and fourth seeded Washington upsets Albany, identical to last season.

Odds of hosting ArenaBowl XXXII:

Albany – 69.2%
Philly – 17.6%
DC – 12.0%
Baltimore – 1.2%

Deep Routes: Playoff Possibilities and WR Efficiency

by Anthony Reinhard

“Deep Routes” is a weekly series that will look in-depth at AFL stats and present weekly updates to my AFL model. In my second post, I’ll take a look at the playoff picture and show the leaders in targets so far this season.

Model Refresh

Baltimore will be headed to the playoffs after AC was knocked off at home by the Soul last week. The Valor are now a near lock to take the final playoff spot, as they will clinch this week with either a win against Baltimore or an Albany win against Columbus. I have Albany as a 15.5pt favorite and Washington as nearly a six point underdog on the road.

Playoff Matchups

With the playoff teams nearly set and only five total games left in the regular season, I thought I’d break down all four possible matchup combinations, from the least likely to the most likely based on my simulation. I’m going to mostly ignore seeding here, as the first round of the playoffs will be a pair of home & home games.

PHI/AC & ALB/BAL (0.6%)

This is Atlantic City’s only chance to crash the playoff party and they’ll need quite a bit of help. The Blackjacks are on a bye this week, but will need Columbus to pull off a big upset over Albany and Baltimore will have to beat Washington. If both Week 12 games work out for AC, they’ll still have a tough Week 13 slate. Obviously they’ll need a win over Baltimore, but before that they will also need Columbus to pull off a second consecutive upset (this time over the Valor) and Philly to earn another win over the Empire in the two Saturday games.

PHI/ALB & BAL/DC (2.9%)

In order to see a matchup of the league’s top two teams in round one, we’ll need the same Week 12 results as our first combination (Columbus & Baltimore both win). Week 13 would require another Soul upset over Albany and then an Atlantic City loss to Baltimore. Baltimore (8-4) would win the three-team tiebreaker over the Soul and Empire, vaulting them to the top seed and forcing the remaining two to play for the fourth and fifth times this season.

ALB/BAL & PHI/DC (31.2%)

There are a couple ways to end up with this set of matchups. The least likely involves the Soul snatching the top seed as Albany loses out and Washington and Baltimore both split their final two games.

The remaining possibilities here have the Empire as top seed and Washington scraping out the second or third seed. For that to happen, Washington must beat Baltimore this week. Washington will then need another win over Columbus or a Baltimore loss in Week 13, coupled with at least one Albany win in Week 12 or 13.

ALB/DC & PHI/BAL (65.3%)

The most likely combination of our four falls in line with the current standings and will hold just as long as Baltimore and Albany both win one of their last two and Washington loses one of their last two. This combination could be locked in as soon as this week with wins by Baltimore and Albany.

We could also see this setup if Albany drops their final two and either Washington wins out or Baltimore loses out. This would push the Soul to the top seed where they would face the Brigade.

Targets

One of the most useful fantasy football stats is targets. While the AFL does not aggregate these anywhere officially, they do exist in play-by-play logs. Here is what I found when I went digging:

One of the first things that jumped out to me is how Washington is using their receivers. Perhaps those who have watched more Valor games may already be aware of how much they favor Reggie Gray near the goal line. Gray has been in the league for nine years and has over 10,000 yards receiving, but I’m still a little surprised at how often they send it his way around the end zone at just 5’9/175 lbs. McNeil at 6’3 is a big target and leads the league in proportion of targets inside the 10.

Malachi Jones leads the league in catches, targets, and yards through the air, but has only 12 targets inside the 10 yard line on the season. Part of this is that Albany typically scores before they reach the 10 yard line. The Empire average just 4.2 passes inside the 10 per game, compared to AC who lead the league with 7.4 per game.

Jones is a big part of the Empire scoring early. His average touchdown catch this year is nearly 24 yards and he has already piled up 23 catches of 20+ yards. In Joe Hills’ 2016 season where he averaged 10/126/3.6, he hauled in only 28 such passes over 16 games. Jones skills as a deep threat are making him easily the league’s top wideout.

AFL Week 11 Preview and Picks

The week one matchup saw Philadelphia defeat Atlantic City, 48-41. Photo: David Taylor

by: David Taylor

Week 11 only has one game, but it may just be the most important game of the season. Philadelphia travels to Atlantic City to take on the Blackjacks. The contest will determine the fate of Atlantic City, and willl heavily influence what Baltimore and Washington need to do the following weekend. 

Two of the hottest teams in the AFL square off in this weekend’s only matchup. With a win, Atlantic City keeps its slim playoff hopes alive. A loss will effectively end the season for the Blackjacks. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is playing for one of the top two seeds in the playoffs. 

Atlantic City has put up 131 points in its last two games (65.5 ppg) with backup quarterback Warren Smith, Jr. at the helm. Smith is 46-62 for 538 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last two starts. Atlantic City is simply a different team with Smith at quarterback. Last week, the defense came up big as well, forcing 3 interceptions and recording one sack in the game. For the Blackjacks to win, the defense will have to step up and stop a Soul offense that was unstoppable against the best team in the league last weekend. 

Philadelphia has won three in a row and four out of five. The Soul have clinched a playoff spot but is hungry for more. Philadelphia still has an outside shot at the number one seed, as referenced here. The biggest change for the Soul over the last several weeks has been on defense. Over the last three weeks, Philadelphia has forced seven turnovers and eight turnovers on downs. The offense is also more consistent. Last weekend, Philadelphia scored on every offensive possession except the first one. The key to victory for the Soul will be to get some pressure on Warren Smith, Jr. In last week’s game against Albany, Philadelphia got a crucial third-quarter sack that changed the entire game. This game will likely be very high scoring, meaning that whichever defense can come up with a big play will win. 

Players to Watch:

QB Warren Smith, Jr., Atlantic City -Smith has set the league on fire in his two starts, so a big game from from him is what Atlantic will need to get the win.

DB James Romain, Philadelphia Soul– Romain is easily the defensive player of the year for the AFL. Romain leads the league with interceptions at 7. If Romain can step in front of a couple of Smith’s passes, it will be a long day for Atlantic City.

Color Wars:

Some other interesting things to consider: Atlantic City is 3-1 at home this season while Philadelphia is 2-2 on the road. Philadelphia has worn white on white over its last three games and is 3-0. Atlantic City typically wears all black at home and is 3-0 at home when they do so. As superstitious as athletes are, expect a monochrome matchup this weekend. 

Prediction: Blackjacks 64, Soul 61

Here are the staff picks: 

Stat Pack Attack: Dealer Dominate in Atlantic City

By Richard Martin

If you’ve been watching Arena Football for awhile, you understand that there have been plenty of high scoring games in the league’s history. Last week, I talked about the highest scoring game in AFL history, the bounty for video still holds strong by the way, and the Albany Empire and Atlantic City Blackjacks combined for 124 points.

This week, the Blackjacks continued their strong offensive output, dropping 70 points in the nation’s capital in a strong 70-21 win over the Washington Valor.

The last time an Arena Football team scored at least 60 points in back to back weeks was in 2017, when the Philadelphia Soul defeated the Cleveland Gladiators 69-67 on May 6 and then beat the Baltimore Brigade 61-56 on May 13.

The main reason for the fireworks in Atlantic City can be attributed to a Quarterback change. Randy Hippeard, a star AFL QB, had not quite performed up to his potential this season, with 1602 yards, 29 touchdowns and five interceptions so far. While this sounds, and still is, very impressive, Hippeard tossed 61 touchdowns last season in Baltimore.

Insert Warren Smith. Smith was on the Washington Valor’s roster for the past two seasons after playing for the Spokane Shock in 2015. He was mostly used as a backup, but still had a combined 15 touchdowns and 677 yards in two seasons.

After a rough week eight relief effort against Philadelphia, going 16-for-31 for 150 yards, two touchdowns and a pick, Smith has impressed the past two weeks going a combined 46-for-62, with 538 yards, 12 touchdowns and just one interception.

Warren Smith has brought some excitement into the AC, but more importantly, he’s gotten the Blackjacks back into playoff contention. With just two games left, the Blackjacks could shock the league and make a deep run in their first season.

Soul Train Comin’ Through

The Philadelphia Soul have been a stalwart in the Arena Football League for the past 10 seasons. With their 54-43 win over the first place Empire, the Soul clinched the playoffs for the eighth straight season, and now have an outside shot at first place.

Washington needs just one win to clinch a playoff bid, while Atlantic City and Baltimore are battling for the last spot. You can read more in David Taylor’s Playoff Scenarios.

Standings (As of June 29, 2019)

Team                                     Record   
Albany Empire                        8-2                 
Philadelphia Soul                  6-4
Baltimore Brigade                   6-4
Washington Valor                    5-5
————————————————-
Atlantic City BlackJacks          4-6
Z – Columbus Destroyers        1-9

Clinched Playoff Berth
Z = Eliminated from Playoff Contention

Week 10 Results:
Baltimore 50 Columbus 12
Philadelphia 54 Albany 43
Atlantic City 70 Washington 41

Can’t Sink This Battleship

It’s been a rough season for the Columbus Destroyers, especially for their offense.

The Destroyers rank last in the AFL in touchdowns, points, and have scored just 32 points per game, currently 15th worst all time in Arena Football League history.

Quarterback play has struggled as well, with Columbus ranking last in passing yards , passing touchdowns and have thrown the most picks, 16, and have been sacked the most, 25 times.

This week was another tough week for the Destroyers offense, as they would trail 21-12 at halftime in Baltimore. The offense wouldn’t score again, falling to the Brigade 50-12.

The funny thing is, Columbus finished with more yards of offense than Baltimore, with 200 compared to just 145 for the Brigade. However, the swarming Baltimore defense forced six turnovers, returning a fumble and an interception for a touchdown, and a safety. The Brigade also had four sacks and on special teams, Joe Powell returned a kickoff 57 yards to the house.

The 12 points scored by Columbus is the 8th least amount of points scored by an away team in AFL history.

The Brigade defense now leads the AFL in forced and recovered fumbles, sacks and tackles for loss. They also rank second in interceptions. The Brigade still have some work to get into the playoffs, but this defense could help them make a run to the ArenaBowl.

League Lookback: The Lone Shutout in AFL History

Teams have done worse on offense than the Destroyers did this week.

The Denver Dynamite beat the Detroit Drive 15-14 in 1989. The Sacramento Attack lost 51-3 to the Charlotte Rage in 1992. Recently, in 2014, the New Orleans VooDoo lost 54-13 to the Jacksonville Sharks.

But only one team has been shut out in the entire history of the Arena Football League.

On June 13, 1992, the San Antonio Force fell to the Orlando Predators 50-0 in Orlando, Florida. In an 2012 article by Richard Oliver on mysanantonio.com, David Caldwell, the first ever draft pick in San Antonio history, said that the Force had a “full-contact, two-hour practice a day before the game…got dressed, got on the plane and our legs were dead.

The team apparently left for Orlando at 4 am local time the day of the game, were stuck in Atlanta for a layover, and made it to the arena in time for a pregame meal. By the way, this was also an expansion team against a Predators squad that would go 9-1 and make the ArenaBowl.

The Predators would take a 33-0 lead at halftime and never look back.

The closest a team has been to being shut out in the modern area of Arena Football was in 2007 when the New York Dragons scored a touchdown with 11:38 left in the game to avoid a shut out in a 60-7 loss to the Dallas Desperados in Week One.

We’ll probably never see another shut out in AFL history, but it is interesting to look back at the lone shut out and how the game has changed.

Game of the Week: Philadelphia at Atlantic City

The Arena Football League must be going out of town for Independence Day, as there is just one game this week.

Philadelphia is set as they clinched their playoff spot with a huge win over Albany. Atlantic City has found themselves back in the playoff race with just two games left.

Dan Raudabaugh has gotten back in his groove, and Warren Smith has become an interesting story late in the season.

With the two cities just 61 miles away from each other, playoff spots on the line, and two phenomenal quarterbacks, the fireworks show could continue Saturday night at Boardwalk Hall.

Deep Routes: A Weekly Dive Into the Statistics of the AFL

by Anthony Reinhard

Hi everyone! This will be my first weekly post where I’ll share some forecasts from my AFL Elo model and occasionally make a deep dive into some AFL data that I’ve collected.

Model Refresh

Albany was surprisingly upset last week on the road, but retains the top spot in my rankings. Philadelphia jumps to #2 after clinching a playoff spot. The Soul will try to keep their momentum flowing in the only game this week. They are a 4.5pt favorite over Atlantic City.

As far as the playoffs go, Baltimore is the only team that can clinch a playoff berth this week with an AC loss. A loss by the Blackjacks wouldn’t eliminate them, but my model has their odds dropping to around 1 in 400.

A Tale of Two Expansion Offenses

The Destroyers suffered a painful 38 point loss last Friday at Baltimore. This was the largest margin of victory since ArenaBowl XXX champ Philadelphia ran up a 70-21 win, also in Baltimore, during the 2017 season. Columbus scored twice in the second quarter, but was shutout in the second half. This was the first time a team has been held scoreless in a half this season and the 105th time in league history. The last instance came in Week 11 last year when the Valor failed to put up any second half points against the Soul.

It sadly gets worse for Columbus as they posted the 6th worst offensive performance since box scores became available in 2000. The Destroyers scored just 12 points on their 13 offensive possessions.

On the other side of the coin, Atlantic City had an offensive explosion in their win over Washington. They became the 15th team to post a 7.0 or better after scoring 63 offensive points on 9 drives behind new QB Warren Smith. In Week 3 of this year, Albany hung 50 offensive points on the Soul on only 7 possessions, the only team to exceed 7.0. Albany put their name on the list again two weeks ago.

Smith v. Hippeard

Warren Smith has now logged two successful starts as Blackjacks QB. Original starter Randy Hippeard has officially been “questionable” to play in both games since going down in Week 8 against Philadelphia. It seems to be an open question as to whether he will return and resume his duties as starter, but I thought it would be a good idea to compare where the players shake out by the numbers, both this year and last.

Hippeard played better last year and his larger sample size tends to give me more confidence he can deliver above-average production in the long-term. Smith’s solid play as of late should allow him to hold onto the job for the time being though.

Turnaround for the Blackjack Defense

Last week I tweeted that the Blackjacks would be in serious jeopardy if their defense did not pick up the slack after allowing a touchdown on 23 straight drives. My concerns were initially justified, as Washington scored on their first four drives on Saturday night. AC finally recorded a stop when they picked off an end-of-half Hail Mary from Arvell Nelson.

In the second half, a re-energized defense stopped the Valor on four of six drives to preserve a blowout 70-41 win. After the win, a certain Blackjack DB let me know that my doubt was misplaced.

Is the Commish Right?

That tweet from Northington wasn’t the only heat I caught on twitter last week. After expressing my disappointment to the AFL Tonight podcast team for not addressing a Columbus rumor during an interview with Commissioner Boe, I drew a reply a reply from the man himself. I was pleased with his answer, but I had another burning question from his interview.

Link to podcast —> http://www.arenafan.com/podcasts/randall_boe_interview.mp3

The podcast crew astutely inquired as to whether or not Commissioner Boe was concerned with the drop in scoring this season (about 1:20 to 4:05). The commish replied that the league’s focus moving forward was to shorten the real-time length of the game while still providing a high-octane product. Boe went on to assert that while points are down, points per minute of game time are up. I knew that possessions per game were down significantly so I thought I’d look into it.

My findings show that points per minute are actually down modestly this season. As Boe mentioned, he’s seen a substantial drop in game length. I personally am skeptical that making games shorter will drive engagement. I’m not sure that a two hour event is all that much more attractive than a three hour event in general.

Attendance has dropped again for the fourth straight year. The four non-expansion teams however have posted steady attendance numbers as a whole, so attendance is likely not a major concern moving toward next year.

The Race to Host ArenaBowl XXXII

Albany has not only been the best team since the start of the year, they’ve had huge lead in attendance and have clinched home field should they advance to the ArenaBowl. The next two spots have been locked in as well (to PHI and WAS, respectively), while AC has an 88% chance to host Baltimore in the unlikely event that the two meet in the ArenaBowl.

Odds of hosting ArenaBowl XXXIII:
Albany – 71.2%
Philly – 18.7%
DC – 9.8%
AC – 1 in 500
Baltimore – 1 in 3500